Illinois’ jobless number may have been misleading

Any worker’s loss of employment is bad news, but recent social-media posts apparently crowing about the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in Illinois last month probably overlooked a lot of context.

(Also, of course, anyone can post almost anything on Facebook, etc.)

Nationally, the number of Americans filing new applications for jobless benefits increased more than expected in the week ending May 24, and the unemployment rate picked up slightly.

Those initial claims were up 14,000 to 240,000, more than expected by economists, who’d predicted 230,000.

Illinois in mid-May had 10,065 initial jobless claims – up 1,162 from previous reporting. A chart posted by a MAGA troll displayed Illinois as the country’s worst state for initial jobless claims. However, checking it out, Illinois’ initial claims figure was actually No. 5 – after California (41,552), New York (13,998), Pennsylvania (10,248) and, showing the phenomenon is not limited to “blue states,” Texas (16,266).

The Bureau of Labor Statistics has attributed recent job losses to changes in four main sectors: manufacturing, construction, wholesale, and retail.

Also, given the calendar, some schools’ early summer dismissals could add to the numbers, which are starting to reflect newly unemployed federal workers, and recently discharged veterans, BLS noted.

Two factors in particular affected new jobless claims, factors not shown in simple bar graphs: Trump’s tariff threats and simple demographics.

What should be an obvious observation is that those top five states in initial claims have much higher populations and far more people employers than most states.

According to the BLS, Illinois has 6.1 million employed people; California has 18 million, New York 9.9 million, Pennsylvania 6.2 million and Texas 14.3 million.

The higher the labor force, the more likely the numbers of employers and workers will be higher.

Also, the job market and the economy overall are being influenced by the one-again/off-again trade war started, stopped and stalled by President Trump.

“There has been an uptick in layoffs because of economic uncertainty as Trump’s aggressive trade policy makes it challenging for businesses to plan ahead,” reported financial correspondent Lucia Mutikani from Reuters.

At the Federal Reserve’s May policy meeting, the Fed noted that there was “considerable uncertainty” over the job market’s outlook, adding “outcomes would depend importantly on the evolution of trade policy as well as other government policies.”

Minutes from the Fed meeting say policymakers “assessed that there was a risk that the labor market would weaken in coming months.”

Indeed, economists now forecast June job numbers to be up from this year’s range off 205,000 to 243,000.

In Illinois, the state’s Department of Commerce and Economic Opportunity’s most recent WARN notices of closings and layoffs (disclosed under the state’s Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification Act) reported 15 employers’ eliminating jobs, either temporarily or permanently. Eight reported affecting more than 50 workers, led by three companies: Chicago’s Oak View Group at McCormick Place, an “arts, entertainment and recreation company,” laying off 203 workers; Savanna’s Elkay Plumbing Products Co. closing and eliminating 135 jobs, and Freeburg’ Hubbell, Inc, an electrical supply company, laying off 110 workers.