Redistricting could disrupt elections for years

A year before the next federal election, an apparent ceasefire in the government shutdown has been tentatively negotiated, but the national fight over redistricting is ongoing – even accelerating.

And Illinois is one of several “blue” states that might get more involved, although Gov. JB Pritzker said the effort is paused for the moment.

Redistricting generally is the process of redrawing electoral district boundaries to guarantee that each district has a roughly equal population, in accordance with the U.S. Constitution's “one-person, one-vote” principle.

Typically, legislatures (or commissions) adjust Congressional districts every 10 years, after new data from the Census shows shifts in voting-age population and changes in residences.

But in July, President Trump asked Texas to unilaterally redistrict Democratic-leaning districts to create GOP-friendly districts to gain an edge in the 2026 House election, and Texas complied. The move is unprecedented as far as its partisan purpose as well as its timing. Republican-majority Missouri, North Carolina and Ohio also have followed Trump’s order.

Now, 219 Republicans and 213 Democrats serve in the House, and alone, Texas’ remap could mean five more GOP Representatives for mid-term balloting affected by Trump’s unpopular policies.

Historian and author Heather Cox Richardson commented, “The president of the United States is openly admitting that his party cannot win a free and fair election."

This summer, California Gov. Gavin Newsom reacted to the scheme by Trump and Texas Gov. Greg Abbott by saying, “Two can play this game,” and he launched a California response. This month, California voters by almost a 2-to-1 margin approved Proposition 50, a referendum to redistrict to counter GOP moves. (Within hours, Republicans sued to prevent California from doing what Texas did.)

Besides California’s  Prop. 50, Nov. 4 results were good news for Democrats, perhaps justifying Republican concerns that the next election could be a challenge for Republicans to hold onto their House majority.

* Democratic Socialist Zohran Mamdani is the next mayor of New York City;

* Democrat Abigail Spanberger is Virginia’s Governor-Elect, Democrat Ghazala Hashmi will be Virginia’s new Lieutenant Governor, and Democrats flipped more than a dozen seats blue in Virginia;

* Democrat Mikie Sherrill is the next Governor of New Jersey; and

* Democrats held the Pennsylvania Supreme Court.

 

“I am very mindful about the state of things in this country,” Newsom said,. “Donald Trump does not believe in free and fair elections: period, full stop.”

Elsewhere, Maryland Democrats thus far have declined to follow California’s lead, comparing marginalizing voters for partisan reasons to suppressing the Black vote.

Virginia Democrats have called for a special legislative session to counteract Trump.

Further, the current conservative-majority U.S. Supreme Court, in the “Louisiana v. Callais” case (which it heard argued last month) could kill Sec. 2 of the Voting Rights Act. Which for 60 years has protected historically excluded populations. Such a ruling could let Republicans redraw many Congressional seats to favor the GOP and crush minority voters’ influence in the House.

The nonpartisan Cook Political Report rates eight Republican seats are “toss ups” and nine leaning Republican. On the Democratic side, 10 Democratic seats are toss ups and 12 others lean Democratic.

Newsom has publicly mentioned Illinois as a blue state that could also counter the GOP tactic, as well as Colorado and New York.

Pritzker this month indicated that if Indiana redistricts – as some Hoosier Republicans have proposed after visits by Vice President JD Vance – Illinois could follow suit. Indiana lawmakers have scheduled a Dec. 1 meeting to debate the idea.

“An awful lot of people want us to consider redistricting and I have to say we’re watching what Indiana does,” Pritzker said. “You know, we’ve been looking at pairing with different states.

“None of us want to do it,” he continued. “None of us want to go through a redistricting process. But if we're forced to, it's something we'll consider doing,”

Some Illinois Democrats support targeting Republican Mary Miller, a Right-wing stalwart in the 15^th District. Others suggest Darin LaHood’s 16^th District, which for years has voted for a Republican but rarely had the choice of a dynamic, well-funded Democratic challenger; plus, Central Illinois has become less “red” than “purple” in the last decade.

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries visited Springfield last month, meeting with Illinois’ U.S. Reps. Jonathan Jackson, Robin Kelly, Lauren Underwood and other redistricting supporters, but some were lukewarm, including State Sen. Willie Preston, who said he’d back such a move only if Black representation isn’t diminished.

Also, political logistics could impede Illinois. For example, candidates for the March primary have already filed petitions to run in existing districts.

Such partisan redistricting has other risks. Taking reliably Republican voters from “safe seats” could backfire by making their previous districts less Republican and more competitive. Likewise, Democrats moving Democratic supporters to a GOP district could dilute the influence of minority voters – often a key part of the Democratic base.

In Illinois, Pritzker added, “We don’t think that this is a good idea, the redistricting across the country. But unfortunately, Donald Trump is trying to cheat. So we’re watching what Indiana does. We may have to react to that. It’s certainly something that people have considered here and the legislature has considered here, but we’ll have to see what happens.”