Bill Knight column for 4-27, 28 or 29, 2020
In 1905, philosopher George Santayana in “The Life of Reason”
wrote, “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.”
As the world copes with COVID-19, it would seem helpful to
consider past plagues, especially 1918, when, as now, some moments were magic
and others tragic. It’s especially relevant as Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp reopened
many places there (days after the Pentagon announced extending the military
travel ban from May 11 to June 30).
Strict orders on closings and social distancing in 1918
helped a post-plague economic recovery, according to research by an MIT professor
and two Federal Reserve economists.
“Areas that acted early and aggressively with
non-pharmaceutical interventions do not perform worse economically, at least in
the medium term. If anything, they actually come out of the pandemic stronger,”
said MIT’s Emil Verner, lead author with the Fed’s Sergio Correia and Stephan
Luck. “Lifting restrictions too early could make the economy worse by leading
to a resurgence of the virus in an even more destructive pandemic.
“We have to defeat the disease before the economy can go back
to normal.”
Now, as then, anxious Americans want to stay safe, and eager
people chafing under limitations also want to go out and resume their routines.
Also similar, says “The Great Influenza” author John M. Barry, in 1918 “leaders
were saying things like, ‘You have nothing to fear if proper precautions are
taken’.”
In that pandemic 102 years ago, life continued in some form.
Major League Baseball played a shortened
season, with the Cubs losing the World Series to the Red Sox, led by
23-year-old Babe Ruth, a hard-hitting pitcher who contracted the Spanish flu in
May, bounced back to play, but was stricken again in October and recovered,
then was traded to the Yankees.
Bestselling books that year included Booth Tarkington’s “The
Magnificent Ambersons” and the first publication of “Elements of Style” by
William Strunk Jr. Top records in 1918 included Enrico Caruso’s version of
“Over There,” by George M. Cohan, and Al Jolson’s “Rock-A-Bye Your Baby with A
Dixie Melody.” In the early movie industry, the first adaptation of “Tarzan of
The Apes” grossed about $1 million, and Charlie Chaplin’s silent comedy
“Shoulder Arms” came out shortly before World War I’s armistice. On stage, the
Marx Brothers, living in LaGrange, Ill., performed the vaudeville circuit, and
this month in 1918, they played six days in Chicago, followed by seven dates in
St. Louis, and then shows in Champaign, Davenport and Rockford. They’d play
before theater crowds in face masks and sitting in every other seat in
alternate rows to practice social distancing.
Like today, some people were uninformed or decided to ignore
doctors and go on as if there were no danger from the disease. Government censors
on both sides of the war minimized reporting on influenza and its death rate
globally to avoid distracting from war efforts. However, Spain was neutral in
the war, so journalists there weren’t prohibited from reporting on the
outbreak, and with their coverage the disease began to be called the “Spanish
Flu.”
With more media since, people get more information, and multiple
polls show about 60% of the nation remains worried about getting infected and lifting
restrictions too soon.
In 1918, there were cries to return to “normalcy” regardless
of medical advice, and under pressure some places relaxed restrictions and
reopened many shuttered businesses. The flu did seem to fade that summer, but
it returned forcefully in a few months, causing health officials to again ask
people to avoid public gathering and isolate themselves. (Its resurgence was
swift. In Hartford, Ct., for example, 13 cases were reported Sept. 20 and the
next day there were 500; in October, 195,000 Americans died from the virus.)
Presently, state leaders such as Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker
and medical experts say reopening will require massive testing, tracing
contacts and treating or quarantining as needed. But South Carolina, Tennessee
and Texas may follow Kemp’s example in Georgia, which has some 21,000 cases and
850 deaths.
Recently writing in The Week magazine, Joel Mathis said, “It
is possible that by trying to get Georgia back to business, Kemp could create
the conditions for a new outbreak of COVID-19 while the local economy remains
in the doldrums.”
As activist/scholar Noam Chomsky said, “There’s a good reason
why nobody studies history. It just teaches
you too much.”