A year before the
next federal election, an apparent ceasefire in the government shutdown has
been tentatively negotiated, but the national fight over redistricting is
ongoing – even accelerating.
And Illinois is one
of several “blue” states that might get more involved, although Gov. JB
Pritzker said the effort is paused for the moment.
Redistricting
generally is the process of redrawing electoral district boundaries to guarantee
that each district has a roughly equal population, in accordance with the U.S.
Constitution's “one-person, one-vote” principle.
Typically,
legislatures (or commissions) adjust Congressional districts every 10 years,
after new data from the Census shows shifts in voting-age population and
changes in residences.
But in July,
President Trump asked Texas to unilaterally redistrict Democratic-leaning
districts to create GOP-friendly districts to gain an edge in the 2026 House
election, and Texas complied. The move is unprecedented as far as its partisan purpose
as well as its timing. Republican-majority Missouri, North Carolina and Ohio also
have followed Trump’s order.
Now, 219
Republicans and 213 Democrats serve in the House, and alone, Texas’ remap could
mean five more GOP Representatives for mid-term balloting affected by Trump’s
unpopular policies.
Historian and
author Heather Cox Richardson commented, “The president of the United States is
openly admitting that his party cannot win a free and fair election."
This summer,
California Gov. Gavin Newsom reacted to the scheme by Trump and Texas Gov. Greg
Abbott by saying, “Two can play this game,” and he launched a California
response. This month, California voters by almost a 2-to-1 margin approved Proposition
50, a referendum to redistrict to counter GOP moves. (Within hours, Republicans
sued to prevent California from doing what Texas did.)
Besides
California’s Prop. 50, Nov. 4 results
were good news for Democrats, perhaps justifying Republican concerns that the next
election could be a challenge for Republicans to hold onto their House
majority.
* Democratic
Socialist Zohran Mamdani is the next mayor of New York City;
* Democrat Abigail
Spanberger is Virginia’s Governor-Elect, Democrat Ghazala Hashmi will be
Virginia’s new Lieutenant Governor, and Democrats flipped more than a dozen
seats blue in Virginia;
* Democrat Mikie
Sherrill is the next Governor of New Jersey; and
* Democrats held
the Pennsylvania Supreme Court.
“I am very mindful
about the state of things in this country,” Newsom said,. “Donald Trump does
not believe in free and fair elections: period, full stop.”
Elsewhere, Maryland
Democrats thus far have declined to follow California’s lead, comparing
marginalizing voters for partisan reasons to suppressing the Black vote.
Virginia Democrats have
called for a special legislative session to counteract Trump.
Further, the current
conservative-majority U.S. Supreme Court, in the “Louisiana v. Callais” case (which
it heard argued last month) could kill Sec. 2 of the Voting Rights Act. Which
for 60 years has protected historically excluded populations. Such a ruling
could let Republicans redraw many Congressional seats to favor the GOP and
crush minority voters’ influence in the House.
The nonpartisan
Cook Political Report rates eight Republican seats are “toss ups” and nine
leaning Republican. On the Democratic side, 10 Democratic seats are toss ups
and 12 others lean Democratic.
Newsom has publicly
mentioned Illinois as a blue state that could also counter the GOP tactic, as
well as Colorado and New York.
Pritzker this month
indicated that if Indiana redistricts – as some Hoosier Republicans have
proposed after visits by Vice President JD Vance – Illinois could follow suit.
Indiana lawmakers have scheduled a Dec. 1 meeting to debate the idea.
“An awful lot of
people want us to consider redistricting and I have to say we’re watching what
Indiana does,” Pritzker said. “You know, we’ve been looking at pairing with
different states.
“None of us want to
do it,” he continued. “None of us want to go through a redistricting process.
But if we're forced to, it's something we'll consider doing,”
Some Illinois
Democrats support targeting Republican Mary Miller, a Right-wing stalwart in
the 15th District. Others suggest Darin LaHood’s 16th
District, which for years has voted for a Republican but rarely had the choice
of a dynamic, well-funded Democratic challenger; plus, Central Illinois has
become less “red” than “purple” in the last decade.
House Minority
Leader Hakeem Jeffries visited Springfield last month, meeting with Illinois’
U.S. Reps. Jonathan Jackson, Robin Kelly, Lauren Underwood and other
redistricting supporters, but some were lukewarm, including State Sen. Willie
Preston, who said he’d back such a move only if Black representation isn’t
diminished.
Also, political
logistics could impede Illinois. For example, candidates for the March primary
have already filed petitions to run in existing districts.
Such partisan
redistricting has other risks. Taking reliably Republican voters from “safe
seats” could backfire by making their previous districts less Republican and
more competitive. Likewise, Democrats moving Democratic supporters to a GOP
district could dilute the influence of minority voters – often a key part of
the Democratic base.
In Illinois,
Pritzker added, “We don’t think that this is a good idea, the redistricting
across the country. But unfortunately, Donald Trump is trying to cheat. So
we’re watching what Indiana does. We may have to react to that. It’s certainly
something that people have considered here and the legislature has considered
here, but we’ll have to see what happens.”