Dems defy doomsayers in midterm elections

The main things that are clear about November 8’s elections are that (1) Republicans didn’t get a Red Wave, (2) the Biden administration took less of a beating than is traditional for incumbent parties in midterms, and (3) we won’t know some results for days, maybe weeks.

 

The kneejerk reaction to winners and losers from the midterms might be saying Democrats “won” because overall losses were less than predicted, and the election deniers “lost” because fewer than half of the hundreds running on national, state and local elections prevailed.

 

However, the real winner could be Mitch McConnell, the Senate GOP leader who during the campaign said the Republican Party had a “candidate-quality problem.” Apparently a lot of voters agreed.

And the real loser might be Donald Trump, who saw himself as the “kingmaker,” but many of his endorsed/anointed stand-ins were deposed or defeated.

 

“I am pleasantly surprised on the success of Democrat candidates nationwide,” commented Clint Drury, Director of the West Central Illinois Building and Construction Trades Council. “I think people are tired of the Republican fearmongering and lies with very little tangible solutions to the everyday issues working men and women face.”

 

Conventional wisdom is midterm politics is: The party that controls the White House has a tough time. In 2018, Democrats captured the House. In 2010, Republicans flipped 63 House seats and 7 Senate seats.

Also, Biden’s approval had dipped below 40%, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll, and most voters saw the economy/inflation as a top issue, according to Gallup.

 

Nevertheless, Democrats won some GOP-held seats and Republicans won some Democratic seats. It looks as if the GOP will have a slim majority in the House, sp strap in for impeachments and investigations of Hunter Biden and the withdrawal from Afghanistan. But neither party can claim a mandate.
This sure wasn’t how it was supposed to be.

 

What happened? Again; Trump.

 

Since his 2016 election, Trump lost the House, Senate and White House to Democrats. He also was impeached (twice) and could go to prison if convicted of any crime based on the various allegations now under investigation. Also, after January 6 and, behind it, the Big Lie that the 2020 election was stolen, democracy itself seemed under fire. But the defeat of Trumpers like Dr. Oz shows that dismay with global gas prices or disaffection with Democratic governance doesn’t mean support of authoritarianism.

Further, according to an exit poll done by Edison Research for news media, 60% of all respondents said they were either dissatisfied or angry that ‘Roe v. Wade’ was overturned, and that abortion should be legal in all or most cases.

 

“Abortion was definitely a key issue,” said Mike Landon of UA/Plumbers and Pipefitters Local 25. “That may have helped save us from the Red Wave.”

ILLINOIS’ WORKERS’ RIGHTS AMENDMENT

Given that 71% of American adults approve of unions, according to Gallup, support for a Workers’ Rights Amendment seemed to be a slam-dunk. After all, it’s about fairness.

 

“I think the fundamental thing people are responding to is that collective bargaining is one of the most powerful ways to raise wages,” said Joe Bowen, a spokesperson for the Vote Yes for Workers’ Rights coalition. “And your workplace should never be less safe just because someone else is holding political office or because of the Supreme Court.”

 

However, false claims and wild speculation of its impact confused some people, and the vote was relatively close – although it’s almost certain it will have passed when all votes are counted. The exact number depends on results certified from all 102 counties since amending the state constitution needs at least 60% of those voting on the measure, or more than 50% of everyone voting in the election. At press time, the WRA has almost 59%, but it looks very likely to achieve the majority-of-all-voters standard after early votes and several uncounted counties votes come in – making Illinois the first state to enshrine workers rights through the ballot box.

 

“The Workers’ Rights Amendment is truly and solely about working people,” Drury said. “The opposition, largely funded by two of the richest people in Illinois [Ken Griffin and Richard Uihlein], claimed working people already have rights in state statute, which is true. However, those rights can be stripped away in one single election.”

 

Indeed, a few years ago, Gov. Rauner attacked organized labor, and today in Washington Republican Sen. Rand Paul (Ky.) and Rep. Joe Wilson (S.C.) introduced a bill to make Right To Work laws prohibiting contracts requiring people represented by unions to help pay for representation – and 111 GOP House members and 21 Repubican Senators have backed the measure.

 

“By codifying workers' rights in the constitution, workers’ rights are not in the hands of politicians,” Drury continued. “I am extremely proud of our accomplishment,” he added. “We have helped working people gain better wages, hours and conditions for years to come.”

 

Bowen said, “We feel good; we’re confident.

 

“There is a lot of excitement out here, and it isn’t something you just hear walking down the street here in Chicago,” Bowen continued. “The excitement is in Peoria, the excitement is in Springfield, and it feels great to be a part of.”

 

STATE SLATE

Democrats handily swept Illinois’ statewide offices, with percentages ranging from Gov. J.B. Pritzer’s 54.6% to Comptroller Susana Mendoza’s 58%, strengthening its presence in a political “trifecta” – where one party controls both legislative chambers and the governorship. Illinois is one of at least 16 such Democratic trifectas after Michigan and Minnesota joined the group, and others may as well when votes are certified.

 

Also re-elected were Illinois Attorney General Kwame Raoul and Treasurer Mike Frerichs, and for Secretary of State, a post left open by the retirement of Jesse White, Alexi Giannoulias defeated Republican Dan Brady.

 

ILLINOIS SUPREME COURT

Described as “one of the most important elections in labor folks’ lifetimes,” according to Marc Poulos, Executive Director at the Indiana, Illinois and Iowa Foundation for Fair Contracting, the vote for two state Supreme Court Justices was a huge victory.

 

In the 2^nd District (DeKalb, Kendall, Kane, Lake and McHenry Counties), which had a Republican Justice for decades, Lake County Judge Elizabeth Rochford ran as a Democrat and defeated Republican Mark Curran, and in the 3^rd District (including DuPage, Kankakee and Will Counties) Democratic Appellate Judge Mary Kay O’Brien defeated sitting Republican Supreme Court Justice Michael Burke. (who’d been appointed to finish retiring Republican Justice Bob Thomas’ term, but had to run after redistricting).

So the state Supreme Court will have a solid Democratic majority.

 

“Courts matter, and a 5-2 majority will be very beneficial to working families,” Drury said.

 

CAPITOL HILL

Democratic U.S. Sen. Tammy Duckworth, Illinois’ junior senator, defeated Republican Kathy Salvi.

In greater west central Illinois’ Congressional Districts, incumbent Republicans Mary Miller in the 15^th and LaHood in the 16^th both won, but Democrats Nikki Budzinzki in the 11^th and Eric Sorensen in the 17^th won those open seats.

 

“I look forward to working with both Eric and Nikki to further the lives of our members and their families,” Drury said. “Congressman LaHood has been good to work with on the Republican side, and will be for two more years.

 

“I have known Nikki for many years, and she has always been an extremely strong advocate for organized labor and will be beneficial for Illinois,” he continued. “Sorensen won the 17^th against an opponent who had a strong showing two years ago.”

 

Landon, the union rep who works throughout western Illinois, from Mercer County to Brown County, noticed how strong Sorensen did even in counties where he came up short, such as McDonough County, where the Democrat lost by just 36 votes.

 

“We endorsed Eric,” Landon said. “And every vote makes a difference.”

 

In Knox County, Democratic Committee Chair Pam Davidson agreed.

 

“Sorensen lost Knox County, but won the city of Galesburg,” said Davidson, who’s also on the Illinois State Central Committee. “His numbers were very high; every vote counts.”

 

In Adams County, Democratic Committee Chair Katherine Daniels said she’s glad the party is giving people more choices.

 

“We haven’t had that for quite some time,” she said. “People downstate can feel ignored. [But] we’re making progress, it’s getting better outside Chicago. We’re going in the right direction.

 

“Here in the Quincy area, we’re rebuilding,” she continued. “We’ve spent the last couple of years making sure we fill the election-judge openings. Now we’re filling all the precinct committee people and looking to recruit candidates.”

Lies or other attack ads using race-baiting or fear-mongering make competing difficult, but working the phones, walking neighborhoods and informing voters can make a difference, said Davidson.

“I think Knox used to be a blue county, but all the lies, like about the SAFE-T Act and the Workers’ Rights Amendment, maybe are turning it purple,” she said. “This new breed of Republican tends to vote a straight ticket [and] Democrats don’t tell their story well enough.”

For their part, Knox Democrats expanded on its 14-page voters guide going to every household every two years and pushed for early and mail-in voting as well as candidate information.

“For days before the election, we canvassed and offered rides and so on,” she said. “That helps fight the lies.”

Falsehoods are often funded by corporations (which outspent unions by about 12-to-1) or billionaires.

“The extremely wealthy opposition [to the WRA] completely made up the argument that our property taxes will increase,” Drury said. “Brothers and sisters, it’s an easy explanation. They tried the age-old tactic of instilling fear into you to vote against your own best interests so they can gain power over us.”

Gaining power can also stem from doubting elections – or tampering with them. The political analysis group FiveThirtyEight reported that out of 552 Republican candidates running for some office nationwide, 199 of them “fully deny” the legitimacy of the 2020 election, and another 61 GOP candidates said that have “serious questions” about that eelection.

“The danger of a Trumpist coup is far from over,” Georgetown law professor Rosa Brooks told the New York Times. “As long as we have a significant numer of Americans who don’t accept principles of democracy and the rule of law, our democracy remains in jeopardy.”

But this month, at least, a majority of U.S. voters did not legitimize election deniers.

Overall, nationally, Democrats performed better than expected in key races, too. Catherine Cortez Masto’s bid for re-election as a Nevada Senator is too close to call, and Raphael Warnock is preparing for a Dec. 6 runoff against Hershel Walker, but other results were positive: Maggie Hassan (N.H.), Jahanna Hayes (Conn.), Seth Magaziner (R.I), and Abigail Spanberger (Va).

Also, labor will see new allies in the House, as newly elected progressives take office, including Becca Balint (VT), Greg Casar (TX 35^th), Maxwell Frost (FL 10^th), Summer Lee (PA 12^th) and Delia Ramirez (IL 3^rd).

All in all, unions may have a breather.

Former union organizer Shaun Richman, an author who now teaches at the State University of New York Empire State College, says he’s optimistic.

“If the Democrats hold the House, make gains in the Senate, and end the filibuster in order to protect abortion rights, there’s a good shot at following that up with fixing labor law,” he said. “It’s not lost on people that the map of abortion bans and the map of Right-To-Work states almost perfectly overlap for very similar reasons. I think people would be ready for an argument that some human rights are so important that they can’t be left to the states to play political football.”

‘Nuisance’ campaign hits, but has little effect on Peoria Election Commission

Local and federal law enforcement are on alert for disruptions in the Nov. 8 election in Peoria, where threats have included possible attempts to intimidate voters, plus a campaign of correspondence apparently intended to disrupt the election’s preparations and execution.

 

‘The Election Commission is concerned with the possibility of ‘tailgate parties’ at drop-box locations and the potential for voter intimidation,” Peoria County Election Commission Executive Director Elizabeth Gannon told the Community Word.

 

“As a result, the Peoria County State’s Attorney, the Peoria County Sheriff, the Illinois State Board of Elections and the FBI have been made aware of this possibility and are willing to work with the Election Commission and voters if an incident arises,” she said.

 

The letters aren’t a grassroots outpouring of concern as much as “Astroturf” engineering of copycat letters promoted online by those who believe the 2020 election was stolen.

 

Election officials nationwide, from Florida and Oregon to the Illinois State Board of Elections in Springfield and the Peoria Election Commission on Brandywine Drive have received the same or similar letters requesting public records, threatening lawsuits, accusing officials with using voting machines that let votes be changed, implying ballots will be challenged, and seeking to throw out voter registrations. (There are state and federal tools used to routinely remove voters who’ve moved or died.) 

 

“There was a surge in FOIA [Freedom of Information Act] requests,” Gannon said. “The Election Commission’s FOIA officer responded to all requests within the allotted time and asked for extensions when necessary.”

 

Most of the letters also demanded election authorities keep Cast Vote records –which they do for 22 months after elections anyway. 

 

“The Election Commission had approval from the Illinois State Archives to dispose of 2020 general-election materials on September 22,” Gannon said. “After counties across the state started receiving the same (or substantially the same) litigation threats, the Director of the Illinois State Archives and Local Records Commission, David Joens, released a memo stating that until further notice any post-2019 election materials may not legally be disposed of. As a result, we have retained these records until further notice.”

 

Oddly, Cast Vote records – usually maintained as huge spreadsheets sometimes used by political scientists or officials reviewing votes – are virtually useless in showing fraud, according to the nonpartisan news site Votebeat.

 

But that may not matter to a group calling itself the Illinois Fair Elections Coalition (which claims an affiliate named “Peoria County Voter Integrity”). Such little-known organizations – which the New York Times reported are backed by well-funded groups including the Conservative Partnership Institute and the American Project – say they’re concerned about voter fraud, but besides recruiting poll watchers to monitor proceedings, they don’t disguise partisan goals.

 

An Illinois Fair Elections Coalition solicitation says, “We can change Illinois from blue to red.”

None of the letters make concrete allegations, much less offer evidence, which would be virtually impossible after many investigations – including by Donald Trump’s Justice Department and the federal Election Infrastructure Government Coordinating Council – found no proof voting systems were compromised and no significant fraud in the 2020 presidential election. 

 

More than 60 courts rejected claims of a rigged election, and a group of prominent conservatives issued a 72-page report, “Lost, Not Stolen,” that focused on six battleground states and concluded that Joe Biden won the presidency. In Illinois, Republican State Sen. Darren Bailey, GOP nominee for Illinois Governor, recently said, “There is no doubt that the constitutional process was followed and [Biden] is President.”

 

Nevertheless, Trump continues to make baseless claims, and the “Big Lie” has instigated believers to challenge voting – or exploit it for political purposes.

 

It creates extra work for election employees, but Gannon said Peoria’s office has responded to the letters without ignoring their main duties. 

 

“It’s a nuisance, but we’re complying with the law,” she said.

 

Most states limit challenges and require complaints to provide specific information about people they’re targeting, and challenges deemed frivolous can be penalized.

Politically, who's dissing you?

Information is power, it’s said, but increasingly – especially with today’s sophisticated, speedy technology – so is disinformation. In elections, maybe such fearmongering was always powerful.

Commentator H.L. Mencken in 1918 wrote, “Democracy tends to degenerate into a mere combat of crazes; the whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by an endless series of hobglobins, most of them imaginary.”

Disinformation isn’t misinformation, which is incorrect material spread without the intent to mislead. For instance, after years, polio has resurfaced, but unlike decades ago, when people saw the polio vaccine as a way to avoid paralysis, anti-vax misinformation created doubt, and risk. Another example is illegal fentanyl produced in colors that look like candy, sparking a drug scare somewhere between “reefer madness” and toxic “brown LSD” at Woodstock. Despite the Illinois State Police and many sheriffs and local police not seeing the “rainbow fentanyl,” a near-panic arose, like mythical “razor blades in apples” scares around Halloween.

Unlike MISinformation that can grow into exaggerations, unintended consequences and danger, DISinformation is false assertions intentionally distributed in an act of deception for gain: to elect/defeat a candidate, to accept/reject people’s rights, to expand/contract the market for a product or service…

For Illinois’ election this month, there’s been misinformation and disinformation about the Safety, Accountability, Fairness and Equity Today Act (SAFE-T) and its Pretrial Fairness provision on cash bail. Honest confusion about how suspects will be treated after arrest makes some people anxious, and dishonest hyperbole about possible outcomes leads people to fear the worst.

Good-faith questions about implementing the law, taking effect Jan. 1, are being discussed by reasonable people in a positive, bipartisan way. Already, people are clarifying language and debunking lies like jails will empty come 2023, that police won’t be able to arrest trespassers, that courts henceforth can’t jail suspects awaiting trial. Actually, no offense is “non-detainable.” Judges will have discretion to hold suspects if they’re flight risks, present a danger to the community, are on probation or parole, have been released on another charge, etc. (And, obviously, those convicted of crimes aren’t affected.)

The 700+-page act, signed last year, stems from the American ideal that defendants are “innocent until proven guilty” and therefore shouldn’t be punished while innocent. A recent Loyola University study found the average pretrial detention to be more than a month behind bars, and 89% of incarcerated people haven’t been convicted – they just don’t have the money to be released.

Besides Illinois Attorney General Kwame Raoul and a nonpartisan task force set up by the state Supreme Court helping with implementation, lawmakers including Jeremy Karlin, a Knox County Democrat, and Jim Rowe, a Kankakee Republican, are working to clear up ambiguities and make the nation’s ideal real.

However, some candidates and issue opponents use false claims to frighten and curry favor.

“This [law] is a step forward,” said Cook County Public Defender Sharone Mitchell. But “you have people out there who have high office, who you would think have a duty to the truth, quite frankly just telling lies about what the law does.”

One figure attacking the SAFE-T Act might be Right-wing radio host Dan Proft, whose “People Who Play by The Rules” PAC’s commercials and mailers mimicking newspapers seem derived from the despicable Roger Stone or Lee Atwater, political consultants who made old-fashioned mud-slinging seem like tame tactics compared to the last 50 years.

“Proft’s papers have been accused of deliberately spreading disinformation and amplifying racism and homophobia,” wrote Capitol Fax columnist Rich Miller.

Actually owned by LGIS (Local Government Information Services), the mailers resembling newspapers include at least 34 titles, according to the Illinois Federation of Teachers, which lists the Peoria Standard, McLean County Times, Galesburg Reporter, and Illinois Valley Times.

“When a half-truth or outright lie appears in a Proft broadsheet, it’s not a flaw – it’s a feature,” said David Greising, president of the Better Government Association.

Will the SAFE-T Act work, or will disinformation succeed?