Scuttling Iran deal ignores world, intelligence and public

Bill Knight column for Thursday, Friday or Saturday, Oct. 12, 13 or 14

Illinois is 6,800 miles from Iran, but most people know U.S.-Iran relations matter.

What’s confusing is why U.S. intelligence, UN inspectors, and popular opinion apparently don’t matter to the Trump administration.

President Trump denounced the deal during the 2016 presidential campaign, saying that “the Iran deal was one of the most one-sided transactions the United States has ever entered into,” and in his first major speech at the UN General Assembly, also described Iran as a “rogue nation” and said the nuclear agreement with Iran is an “embarrassment” to the United States.

Last month, Trump tweeted criticism of an Iranian missile test – which didn’t even happen, according to Israel, CNN, Newsweek and even Fox News (recent internet footage of an Iranian rocket was apparently from a failed launch eight months ago). Plus, missiles aren’t covered in the deal anyway.

Nevertheless, the White House last week said that Trump would announce new U.S. responses to Iran, and as a 90-day deadline approaches for him to recertify the Iran deal, he’s expected to announce that he won’t.

The deal – signed in the spring of 2015 and requiring Iran to redesign, convert or cut its nuclear facilities and accept international monitoring in exchange for some economic sanctions being lifted – isn’t about Trump or his determination to undo achievements by Barack Obama, whose administration bargained the accord. It was negotiated to make it difficult for the nation to develop nuclear weapons, and it involves six other parties (China, France, the European Union, Germany, Russia and the United Kingdom).

Also, a detailed briefing this spring by Central Intelligence Agency experts concluded that Iran is complying with the pact. Further, inspectors from the independent International Atomic Energy Agency, which reports to the UN, agreed that Iran’s in compliance.

Finally, most Americans support the Iran deal, according to a survey by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs (CCGA), a nonpartisan group that’s also putting on an event this month addressing the issue.

A majority of us think the deal helps deter nuclear proliferation by Iran. Six in ten (60 percent) say that the United States should participate in the “agreement that lifts some international economic sanctions against Iran in exchange for strict limits on its nuclear program for at least the next decade,” said CCGA researcher Craig Kafura – unchanged from 2016. (Interestingly, 73 percent of Democrats favor participation, 58 percent among Independents agree, and even 48 percent of Republicans.)

CCGA shows that six in ten (62 percent) say that “the possibility of any new countries, friendly or unfriendly, acquiring nuclear weapons” is a threat, below international terrorism (75 percent) and cyberattacks (74 percent), much less immigration (37 percent).

“Chicago Council surveys conducted over the last several years (2014-2017) show a remarkable stability of American opinion towards the Iran nuclear deal, both before and after the agreement was officially signed,” Kafura said.

If Trump refuses to recognize Americans’ preference, and his own intelligence services and global inspectors that Iran is abiding by the pact, Congress will have 60 days to decide whether to restore sanctions the deal dropped.

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said, “It will be a great pity if this agreement were to be destroyed.” Last week, the commander of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards (RG), the country’s internal and external security force, warned against reneging on the deal, imposing sanctions, and designating the RG a terrorist group.

“As we’ve announced in the past, if America’s new law for sanctions is passed, this country will have to move their regional bases outside the 2,000-kilometer range of Iran’s missiles,” RG commander Mohammad Ali Jafari said, adding that violating the agreement by restoring sanctions would end chances for dialogue.

“If the news is correct about the stupidity of the American government in considering the Revolutionary Guards a terrorist group, then the Revolutionary Guards will consider the American army to be like Islamic State all around the world,” Jafari said. “The Americans should know that the Trump government’s stupid behavior with the nuclear deal will be used by the Islamic Republic as an opportunity to move ahead with its missile, regional and conventional defense program.”

Iran’s military involvement in Syria and Iraq is a fight against the Sunni-Muslim Islamic State, a threat to the Shia-majority Iran and a force the United States also opposes.

            Trump’s withdrawing or unilaterally changing terms could cause the entire deal to collapse. And worse.

CCGA on Oct. 30 is presenting speakers addressing the topic “Iran and the US: Tearing Up the Deal?” at its Chicago conference center on East Randolph Street. To register or for details, phone (312) 726-3860.