For interest and relevance, primary gets a mixed review

Bill Knight column for Monday, Tuesday or Wednesday, April 2, 3 or 4

If Illinois’ March primary election was a movie, it might be “Avengers: Infinity Wars” or “The Endless,” given the vindictive, combative ads and the sense that the preliminaries to November lasted forever.

Therefore, voters might wonder whether a deeper dive into the results is entertaining and relevant.

Entertaining, somewhat; relevant, not so much.

It’s entertaining that the challenger for Republicans’ nomination for governor, State Rep. Jeanne Ives of Wheaton, won 35 Illinois counties. However: So?

The state’s total popular vote is what counts, not the number of counties that candidates rack up. We don’t have a Prairie State Electoral College giving greater weight to counties based on their number of State Representatives or other criteria (Interstates? Casinos? Churches?) County boundaries don’t matter. It’s about who registers to vote and which ones cast ballots.

Generally, voting patterns “downstate,” in a Congressional District, or in a zip code may be meaningful to consultants planning ways to persuade voters in neighborhoods that previously showed a party preference to stick with it or change. However, it’s otherwise almost as fruitless as saying that people who are blood type O, left-handed or Bears fans can be accurately predicted to behave (and vote) any certain way.

Election results aren’t census data on households’ ages, sizes, incomes, etc. Voting is a single act, ballots cast by a certain percentage of registered voters.

(Incidentally, campaigns from Democrats and Republicans alike in recent years have assembled profiles in order to place ads, refine messages, and target various potential voters through various media, but it is new to have someone apparently improperly acquire data through a third party like Facebook.)

Like most post-mortem (postpartum?) snapshots, there are some takeaways from the March 20 vote:

* The race between social conservative Ives and incumbent Bruce Rauner – who she accused of betraying conservatives on issues such as protecting immigrants, transgender people and abortion rights – was closer than projected, as he finished with 51.4 percent to her 48.6 percent.

* The race for governor is sure to be costly, too. In 2014, Rauner spent more than $65 million to defeat former Gov. Pat Quinn by just 4 percent, and he’s plowed an additional $50 million into his reelection bid (which also benefited from another $20 million from multi-millionaire Ken Griffin). Billionaire Democrat J.B. Pritzker contributed $69 million into his primary campaign for governor, so between now and the fall, Illinois’ gubernatorial race could set records.

* For incumbents in governors’ races, elections are usually popularity contests on their records, but it’s difficult for Republicans to win a statewide contest in a Democratic-leaning state like Illinois, and support from President Donald Trump probably won’t be a factor since the Oval Office Occupant is unpopular here. Further, in the days after the primary, Rauner returned to his favorite campaign target, House Speaker Mike Madigan, and acknowledged he must unify the GOP, yet said, “For those of you around the state of Illinois who wanted to send me a message, let me be clear: I have heard you.” (One wonders if Rauner’s supporters thought, “Hey! What about us?”)

* Chicago-area businessman Chris Kennedy and State Sen. Daniel Biss of Evanston (both relatively progressive) together received more votes for the Democratic nomination for governor (50.9 percent) than Establishment pal Pritzker, who won with 45.2 percent.

* In the 18th Congressional District, incumbent Darin LaHood got a whopping 78.9 percent of primary votes in winning the nomination over challenger Donald Rients, and on the Democratic side 2016 candidate Junius Rodriguez won, but only by 2.2 percent over Brian Deters, making the third Democratic candidate, former nominee Darrel Miller, a spoiler of sorts since his and Deters’ votes together were 58.3 percent to Rodriguez’ 41.7 percent.

* State Sen. Kwame Raoul (D-Chicago) narrowly defeated Quinn for Democrats’ nominee for Attorney General, and the rest of the crowded field of eight received 40 percent of the vote – more than either Raoul or Quinn.

* In Illinois’ 3rd Congressional District, incumbent conservative Democrat Dan Lipinski outdistanced his progressive challenger, newcomer Marie Newsman, but only by 2.4 percent. On the Republican side there, Holocaust denier Arthur Jones was unchallenged, so he’ll be the GOP nominee this fall.

* Both major political parties reminded Illinois that their interest is in winning elections, not governing.

As actress Bette Davis said in the 1950 movie “All About Eve,” “Fasten your seatbelts, it’s going to be a bumpy night.”