Reopenings have possible positives, likely negatives

Bill Knight column for 5-14, 15 or 16, 2020 

After pandemic precautions, places are reopening due to political pressure or public concerns, and cautious optimism is mixed with real worries about new outbreaks, reluctant shoppers or legal liabilities.

Despite not meeting White House guidelines on testing, tracing, and treating or isolating, dozens of states and communities are relaxing requirements or defying public-health orders, with others possibly following suit in coming weeks.

In Illinois, Gov. J.B. Pritzker’s “Restore Illinois” plan has five phases to proceed, with standards to meet before moving to the next step.

Optimists among us hope recovery will be as fast as the economy was in declining. More than 33 million jobs have been lost in seven weeks, the unemployment rate is 14.7%, and government aid has been insufficient. People have become frightened to be without income as well as scared of infection.

Of course, being broke might eventually improve. Death won’t, and health experts warn that opening too soon could let the virus rebound with deadly results.

“If we relax these measures without having the proper public-health safeguards in place, we can expect many more cases and, unfortunately, more deaths,” said Josh Michaud, associate director of global health policy with Kaiser Family Foundation.

Physicians say it can be 14 days after COVID-19 exposure before symptoms show, so there are concerns that people will be less vigilant in continuing to “bend the curve” of new cases.

“Rising mobility as well as the easing of social-distancing measures indicate growing contacts among people will promote transmission,” said the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, and last week Dr. Thomas Frieden, former director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said, “We’re not reopening based on science. We’re reopening based on politics, ideology and public pressure. And I think it’s going to end badly.”

Beyond illness, there are consequences to companies and local governments that defy state orders. They could face lawsuits, according to the Illinois Trial Lawyers Association, whose president Antonio Romanucci in a prepared statement said, “The prudent course would be to stay closed for another 25 days and limit any further potential spread which could lead to litigation.”

Further, municipalities and employers might not be covered by insurance if people get sick and sue. Policies are “not going to cover intentional acts,” Illinois Insurance Association director Kevin Martin told journalist Rich Miller, and the Illinois Restaurant Association and Illinois Retail Merchants Association urged businesses to comply with safety orders.

Some officials have even said it’s worth some people dying if that means the country’s economy bounces back, a perspective rejected by emergency physician Leana Wen of the Milken Institute School of Public Health at George Washington University.

“This is a false choice,” Dr. Wen said. “There are ways to safely reopen, and consumer confidence depends on the reassurance of public-health protections. Another flaw with this argument is that those making it are committing others to a sacrifice they did not choose.”

The nation’s top infectious disease official, Dr. Anthony Fauci, this month said, “It’s the balance of something that’s a very difficult choice, like how many deaths and how much suffering are you willing to accept to get back to what you want to be, some form of normality, sooner rather than later?”

Illinois Department of Public Health director Dr. Ngozi Ezike conceded that COVID-19’s spread varies from place to place, so some areas have far fewer cases than others.

“It’s not uniform across the state, and we understand that,” she said. “And so that’s why we’re looking very closely, every day, multiple times a day, just to figure out where we’re at and figure out who’s going up in what dimension, who’s going down in the other dimension.”

On Sunday, Pritzker defended the methodical approach.

“We are being very careful,” he said. “We’ve done a lot to make sure we’re keeping these numbers moving in the right direction. And we will not reopen unless we meet all of the standards. Coronavirus is still out there… So we all are going to have to change the way we do things until we’re able to eradicate it.”

Ezike said Illinoisans might focus their frustrations on the virus itself.

“Everybody wants us to get back to normal,” the doctor said. “I think we are sending some of the frustration towards the wrong entities. You should be sending it towards the virus. And then we should all see how we can support ways to find cures.”