Rural areas offer some stability in shaky job market

 

Bill Knight column for 10-22, 23 or 24, 2020

Rural communities had about 900,000 fewer jobs this August than August of 2019, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). However, the outlook is improving from earlier this year, and rural America is holding on to jobs better than urban or suburban areas.

Besides the number of jobs, the average jobless rates also are better in rural areas than metro areas.

BLS’ October Local Area Unemployment Statistics/ County Level report showed 12-month declines of jobs in rural areas of 6.4% in July and 4.3% in August. That's not good, of course, but it’s improving in the midst of the pandemic.

Urban and suburban areas between August 2019 and August 2020 showed job losses of 8% and 6.9%, respectively.

Nationally, data released Oct. 15 showed 898,000 new unemployment claims in the week ending Oct. 10, seasonally adjusted. That marked 30 consecutive weeks of 800,000-plus claims – since mid-March. More than 27 million people have used state or federal aid through mid-October (almost 18% of the labor force, according to Press Associates, Inc., and as state jobless benefits ran out, as well as the $600 weekly federal supplements, many have been forced to seek Illinois’ 20 weeks of extended benefits.

In downstate Illinois, a sampling of 10 counties showed seven mostly rural counties lost jobs between August 2019 and August 2020, but not as bad as the national average job loss of 6.4% then. The three that saw worse job loss than the country was the metro area of Peoria, Tazewell and Woodford Counties:

The percentage declines in numbers of jobs were 8% in Peoria, 7.9% in Tazewell and 7.7% in Woodford. Reporting fewer job losses were Fulton (3.7%), Henderson (0.1%), Henry (4.6%), Knox (4.2%), Livingston (2.3%), McDonough (2.5%), and Warren (0.7%).

“With the last round of federal unemployment bonuses running out in mid-September and no further stimulus plan in sight, the unemployment numbers for especially impacted industries remain volatile,” says Casey Peterson, Director of Rural Outreach and Development with the Greater Peoria Economic Development Council.

Peterson sees cities that benefit from travelers and hotel business being particularly vulnerable during the pandemic.

“Larger metro areas reliant on hospitality and tourism continue to fare much worse overall,” he says. “Coronavirus has given rural communities with access to natural resources like state parks and recreation areas an opportunity to diversify their economic outlook. With people from all walks of life doing their best to follow guidelines but also wanting to get out of the house, the outdoors are a natural draw for those looking to enjoy the fall weather.”

The COVID-19 pandemic has slowed other types of recreation, especially if the activities are distant destinations requiring air travel. Six of the top 10 job declines among rural counties depend on such recreation: Mono County, Calif.; San Juan County, Wash.; Denali Borough, Alaska; Skagway City, Alaska; Teton County, Wyo.; and Dickinson County, Iowa. However, hometown recreation, sight-seeing close by, and brief breaks from “stay-cations” help rural economies, and jobs.

“Since the start of the pandemic, we've seen surging demand nationwide for safe, close-to-home spaces where people can be active outside,” said Ryan Chao, President of the national Rails-to-Trails Conservancy, last week.

Also, farm country is somewhat protected from many negative job trends.

“Our [downstate Illinois] region echoes national trends in employment numbers by industry,” says Peterson, with the Greater Peoria EDC. “Counties and communities that are heavily reliant on agriculture have generally fared better as far as employment goes. The USDA and the $23.5 billion Farm Bill passed in March played a major stabilizing role.”

Amy Davis, the Economic Development Director in Elmwood, pop. 2,000, agrees, adding, “Agricultural jobs are less influenced by things like a pandemic because once the crop is in the ground, harvest is inevitable and all of the individuals who are part of that and anything down the line from there are needed. Worst-case scenario is fewer hands doing the same work but again most farming operations that I see locally are already running very efficiently.  That doesn't mean the market will be kind, but the work still needs to be done.”