Big Ag, farmers alike could miss USDA’s ‘gutted’ research arm

Bill Knight column for 10-10, 11 or 12, 2019

It’s not illogical for the USDA to improve contact with farmers but relocating its Economic Research Service threatens a program that producers rely on, according to regional and national experts.

The Trump administration is moving parts of the USDA, including the Economic Research Service (ERS), from Washington to the Kansas City area. Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue claims it will save money and bring the department closer to its focus, but out of some 250 staffers, about 180 are leaving the agency.

 “It is really important that ERS have a presence outside the Beltway to assure they are doing research relevant to American agriculture rather than what is of importance only to Washington,” says William Bailey, an ag consultant and former director of the School of Agriculture at Western Illinois University. “For example, the rain we experienced this spring and fall was something that affected Illinois agriculture. While the rain eventually was factored into ERS analysis, for ERS analysts to have experienced it first-hand would have brought the impact of bad planting weather more quickly into ERS analysis. For ERS analysts to move to the central U.S. assures they are aware of weather, trade, transportation and marketing issues not seen in D.C.

“[But] it is important that ERS maintain a presence in D.C.,” Bailey continues. “They provide input, with an agricultural perspective, into important legislative and administrative issues [and] have the opportunity to interact with representatives of national commodity organizations.”

However, reports Bloomberg News’ Katia Dmitrieva, “This key organization has been gutted. As of the end of September, three-quarters of its staff have retired, quit, were terminated, or plan to leave by year-end.”

Founded in 1961, the ERS provides detailed information for the country’s $1 trillion agricultural sector, from forecasts on how much farm subsidies will cost to the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), an important global report for farmers and investors. Other ERS reports focus on rural America, the opioid epidemic, the trade war, and exports, and some reports already have been delayed because what used to be seven editors is now one.

“The ERS research reports, both one-off research (the 2018 Farm Bill, Dicamba Tolerant Soybeans, etc.) and regular reports (Outlook for Oilseeds, etc.), have a significant impact on decisions made by both producers and by the agricultural Input and Output sectors,” Bailey says. “In addition, the link between production agricultural and consumer demand is underscored by ERS research on food and consumers.

“Business decisions are made daily along the entire agricultural chain,” he adds. “The more informed decision makers are along that chain, the better will be their decisions. And ERS has played a key role, over decades, of providing informed and objective information to the entire agricultural sector.”

Whether small farmers or Big Ag, people who need such data are increasingly concerned that other reports won’t be done – or may be less impartial.

“Illinois producers could be significantly affected by information and analysis that is of reduced quantity and quality,” Bailey says. “In the short term, research provided by ERS influences planting, harvesting and marketing decisions. USDA’s monthly WASDE includes analysis important to Illinois agriculture. Also, ERS publishes more detailed market analysis, such as Feed Outlook or Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook, also useful to local producers and agricultural businesses.

“The longer-term consequences of reduced or eliminated ERS research would be driven by the consequences of short-term decisions made without ERS analysis,” he continues. “A lack of insight into market supply or demand conditions could result in producers making incorrect marketing and/or production decisions for one crop year with consequences not fully felt until the following crop year.”

Elsewhere, former ERS administrator and chief economist at the Government Accountability Office Susan Offutt said the staff loss could be to silence researchers whose work contradicts administration policies on tariffs, climate change and other issues.

“The ERS research program produces output that is inconvenient,” she commented.

For instance, 2018 research by ERA showed that, among farmers, Republicans’ Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 mostly benefited the richest producers. After media reported the results, USDA ordered the researchers not to speak publicly, and its chief economist asked them to craft talking points discrediting their own research.

Without decent research, government’s lack of attention to farm policy could worsen, Bailey says.

“Congress has spent little time on current farm issues, such as the impact of tariffs on farm income, movement to approve [the proposed trade deal] USMCA, and the consequences of reduced commodity prices on small farms,” he says. “[There’s] a reduced interest in agricultural issues and that reduced interest seems to be pervasive across the government. And the consequences will eventually – next planting season possibly – be felt by the agricultural community.”